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Blog: 2013 Archive

Another Tricky Winter Forecast for Oklahoma

Posted on Tuesday, December 3, 2013 at 10:30 AM MST

A very powerful arctic cold front will be impacting much of the lower 48 this week, bringing the coldest air in over a year to much of the plains. Several waves of jet stream energy will come out across Oklahoma between Thursday and Monday, resulting in all sorts of winter precipitation to the Sooner State.

Once again, predicting exactly what type and how much precipitation at any given location. Things should become a lot clearer in the next couple days, especially after the front comes through overnight tonight. Right now, it looks like the snow/winter mix line will initially set up shop just south and east of Interstate 44 and will slide southeast as colder air filters into the mid-levels behind the front. The graphics below indicate the maximum temperature in the cloud and precipitation layer, and the snow/winter mix line will be near the 0°C line, which is highlighted in thick black.

Sfc-500 mb Max Temp (°C), Thurs at 12 Noon CST

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Posted In: Forecasts

Tagged: Noreaster, Rain, Straight Line Winds, Cold Front


Quick Update: Thanksgiving East Coast Storm

Posted on Wednesday, November 27, 2013 at 10:50 AM MST /12:50 PM EST/

Surface observations this morning show the surface low centered over New England, with a cold front extending from near the MA/RI/CT Triple Point southwestward, closely following the coastline to near Jacksonville, FL (the front is just offshore). Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts are still on the warm side of the front, experiencing temperatures in the 50s and 60s and winds out of the southeast at 20-30 knots. The warm front is just about to reach the coast of Maine, so both temperatures and wind speeds there will continue to increase as the day progresses. Once the cold front passes through these areas later this afternoon, wind speeds will diminish temporarily overnight, before filling back in around 15-25 knots around sunrise on Thursday.

Behind the front, winds are light out of the northwest at 5-15 knots for nearly all coastal areas between New Jersey and Florida. Temperatures across interior New England down through the mid-Atlantic States are mainly in the upper 30's and low 40's. At Noon EST, the freezing line was located approximately along a line extending from Buffalo to Pittsburgh to near Beckley, WV (in the SE part of the state). It will be snowing along and west of that line. As the freezing line moves east, the precipitation will be pulling out of those areas, so coastal areas will see very little snow, if any at all. Areas in the Appalachians back into parts of the Ohio Valley, however could see as much as 6 inches of snow, with some higher totals near the Canadian Border in New York.

Barring something really crazy happening (which I am not anticipating at this point), this will be my last update on this storm, as I will be signing off for the Thanksgiving holiday and will not be back until next week. If you want any further details, the model data from a couple days ago still looks pretty much on track for this storm. Once this storm exits your area, calm and sunny weather will come in behind it. This weekend looks pretty nice for nearly the entire country. Have a great Thanksgiving and be safe if you are traveling.

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Posted In: Forecasts

Tagged: Noreaster, Rain, Straight Line Winds, Cold Front


Morning Update: Thanksgiving East Coast Storm

Posted on Tuesday, November 26, 2013 at 9:30 AM MST /11:30 AM EST/

Hi all. Just checking in with a quick morning update. Everything from last night's forecast is still right on track. This morning's model runs are showing the strongest winds across coastal areas southern and eastern New England, including Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and much of Connecticut. This swath of strong winds will shift north as the storm moves and will eventually impact coastal areas of Maine and New Hampshire, as well as New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Models are currently showing sustained surface wind speeds between 35 and 45 knots in southeastern New England, and some isolated spots may see sustained winds above 50 knots. The strongest winds appear to be bulls-eyed over Cape Cod, and will spread north into the Gulf of Maine. There will obviously be higher gusts, and some gusts may approach hurricane strength (64 knots) in ares that are exposed to the south and east. The storm will continue to strengthen as it moves up into Canada, so the stronger sustained winds will be more widespread further north.

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Posted In: Forecasts

Tagged: Noreaster, Rain, Straight Line Winds, Cold Front


Coastal Storm Getting Set to Impact East Coast

Posted on Monday, November 25, 2013 at 6:30 PM MST /8:30 PM EST/

The low that will become the first nor'easter of this winter season is getting set to pop out off the Georgia coast, upon which it will wind up and head right up the east coast. The good news is that the wind and precipitation will be confined primarily to the storm's warm sector, which will be well above freezing (in the 40s and 50s), making this a rain and wind event and not raging blizzard. The back side of the storm will be cold, but primarily dry.

Part I: Rain and Wind

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Posted In: Forecasts

Tagged: Noreaster, Rain, Straight Line Winds, Cold Front


Winter Weather Set to Invade the Southern Plains

Posted on Thursday, November 21, 2013 at 11:15 AM MST

A big blast of arctic air is set to invade the Great Plains the next few days, bringing the chance for winter precipitation to parts of the region. I am not expecting this to be a significant storm, but it will bring very cold temperatures and the chance of all forms of winter precipitation: snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

Determining exactly what type of precipitation will occur where and how much accumulation there will be is very difficult. If we look at the big picture, one way to be able to at least make an educated guess as to what type of precipitation will fall is to look at the Surface - 500 mb (About 17,000 feet) max temperature and the surface temperature predictions. These maps are for Saturday morning at 3 AM CST, which the GFS model is currently indicating has the highest probability to see both cold temperatures and precipitation. The thick black line marks approximately the freezing isotherm.

Sfc-500 mb Max Temp (°C)

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Posted In: Forecasts

Tagged: Cold Front, Sleet, Snow, Ice Storm


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